The Real Reason Trump Won’t Concede the Election

(Hint: It’s neither Coup nor Craziness)

First Trump claims election fraud. Then, more alarmingly, he replaces Pentagon officials with loyalists just weeks before the end of his term.

It is understandable why some in the media are worried about an attempted coup or similar constitutional crisis.

Well, I’ve got both good news and bad news.

First the good news. No, Trump will not directly challenge the transition of power come January 20, 2021. He won’t be magnanimous but he will walk out of the White House.

And he knows he won’t have much GOP support beyond January 5th. Yes, the GOP has Georgia on its mind when it refuses to sanity-check Trump’s temper tantrum. But once the Georgia senate election is called, even the likes of Mitch McConnell will stop supporting Trump’s spurious claims of Democrats stealing the elections.

And even if Fox News and Facebook stir up the radical right militia and Trump loses his mind, the military will follow their oaths to protect the Constitution. Even if it means throwing their so-called commander in chief out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

His Republican apologists say they just want to give him the time that his ego needs to “process” the election loss. That’s hogwash. Yes Trump is a narcissist but he does not need therapy in order to see he lost. He knows that courts are rejecting his unfounded claims and that he must leave come January 20.

So that’s all the good news.

Now the bad news.

Trump will use Twitter and other media to continue undermining American democracy for months if not years after he leaves office peacefully.

Trump is not insane. In fact he is crazy like a fox. Or more specifically, crazy like the owners of media empires like Fox.

To understand Trump’s final weeks in office, think like a media producer who is about to launch a new reality TV show or new cable channel.

Let’s walk through Trump’s media producer business plan (in 8 easy steps!) for the next few months:

1. Tap into your passion for entrepreneurial drive. No one can start a new venture without a vision and mission to focus your energy. For Trump, it’s not just his traditional desire for wealth and fame. He owes somewhere in the range of $410 million to $1 billion in debt. Much is owed to Deutsche Bank which has a history of ties to dubious Russians and is reportedly looking to sell Trump debt to someone else. Trump needs to worry not only avoiding poverty but also mafia-like debt collection tactics.
2. Have a “hook” for the new show. Which is a better hook for a new show to Trump supporters?: A) “I didn’t do a good job so got fired and replaced by a better-qualified candidate through a fair election”…or….B) “I was robbed by a global conspiracy of socialists who eat babies, help me right back and save the world!” In other words, if he wants his TrumpTV to launch successfully on January 22, he cannot concede the Presidency. He can leave the White House but his new big show’s “hook” requires that he continue to fan the flames of election fraud conspiracies and grievances.
3. Nail your branding. Trump failed as an actual real estate developer but made money licensing the “Trump” brand to real developers. Trump knows branding. He has already applied for the trademark “TeleRally”. I can hardly wait to see how he brands his digital media empire: will it be simple yet catchy like “TrumpTV” or something over the top like “America Against Socialist Pedophiles”?
4. Build a killer business model. A target market of 70 million supporting voters and 88 million Twitter followers. Assume about 25%, 20m people, pony-up $6/mo for TrumpTV, a digital platform of speeches by Trump and his sycophants plus news and a private social media network where members don’t need to worry about any silly Twitter policies against hate speech or public health lies. Do the math: 20 million x 6 dollars x 12 months = $1,440,000,000 per year. Digital media overhead costs can be low (see point 5 below). Assume a margin of 50%. That’s a net profit of $720m per year. Finally, Trump has a change for real wealth!
5. Develop a cast of low-cost performers. Reality TV shows have proliferated in the last few decades in part because production costs are low, with many performers working for peanuts if not free. TrumpTV will be similarly cheap, aside from a handful of “superstars” like Hannity. Luckily Trump can count on a long line of fawning Republican politicians and self-promoting Far Right pundits to provide free content for TrumpTV. But it is not all carrots, there’s also a stick. Any GOP politician or right wing media personality who does not show up on TrumpTV for free can expect to feel the wrath of Trump on Twitter. Political and financial fortunes will be made or broken by TrumpTV, keeping Trump subscription revenue up and production costs low.
6. Break your piggy bank to develop the pilot show. While it will be a cash cow once it is up and running, Trump still needs to invest hard cash to launch TrumpTV. Luckily he has been planning this for a long time. Sure he made money from diplomats, lobbyists and secret service staff using Trump properties during his Presidency. But where’s the real money coming from? First, he has an estimated $50m left over from his inauguration fund, which is money he can use however he wants. If that’s not enough, he can always sell state trade secrets to foreign intelligence agencies, possibly with the help of new appointees sent to the Pentagon. The irony is that it appears to be legal for a President to declassify state secrets and sell his country out for personal gain (another example of the Founding Fathers not thinking ahead). And he can promise pardons to loyalists doing his dirty work.
7. Sign-Up Producers / Promoters / Investors for larger production. Don’t hold your breath waiting for Putin to congratulate Biden. Whether it is a Russian oligarch or Saudi prince, we can expect one of his allies to support TrumpTV. This might be key if Trump has to leave the USA to avoid criminal charges once he loses Presidential immunity, or if he wants to shield his TrumpTV business assets from civil lawsuits in the US. Plus if you’re making $700 million a year in profits, you need an offshore tax haven.
8. Find novel ways for PR / marketing for the opening pilot / big event. Reports are “leaking” of Trump’s plan to run again in 2024. But he did not enjoy governing, he only enjoyed the limelight attention. TrumpTV gives him all the fame, without the hassles, of a Presidency. But any new TV show or media channel needs exciting PR when it launches. Free publicity is Trump’s wheelhouse. And the promise of a 2024 candidacy fits the bill for TrumpTV. What better way to stoke up his core base of supporters-turn-subscribers than to promise them that they can help him Make America Trump Again in 2024?

To sum it up: No, Trump will not usurp Biden’s presidency…but Trump’s original show, “The Apprentice,” and even his Presidency were just a warm-up for his media empire that will make Fox News look actually fair and balanced.